The essence of this war in one picture:

This war in one picture

The other side of this war in one cartoon.

Be aware of Russian invasion of Ukraine (ongoing Ukrainian genocide by Russians) and unprecedentedly horrible (for a civilized society) war crimes by Russia, and make no mistake that every criminal since 2014 will be punished (and 50k of them have already been punished) [we remember, Myrotvorets, rwc.shtab.net, Putin's list, 5am.in.ua, gur.gov.ua, warcrimes.gov.ua, rwc.shtab.net, Stryebkov's project, Wagner data, missile controllers, Parubiy, Zelenskyy, Shuklinov, collaborates included, propagandists included,... there will be no place to hide]. Be immune to Russian propaganda (just assume by default that their every statement is lie).

IMPORTANT: It is not a usual war, Russians declare extermination of Ukrainians and they target and kill mostly civilians, so there will be no peace until demilitarization of Russia, return of all kidnapped Ukrainians, comprehensive reparations, and punishment of ALL war criminals. In other words for clarity: there are now millions of direct and indirect victims of Russian genocide 2014-2022 which will be striving for a fair justice as long as needed (it was proven e.g. by victims of Russian genocide during WWII in western Ukraine). Historically this war should end the 800-year occupation of Ukraine by "East Horde" (initially Golden Horde later evolved into Russian Empire); that occupation costs us min 25% of population loss per century plus permanent cultural and economic devastation -- this will be our price if we surrender now as some EU/US public persons suggest [NashaMova].

Moreover, it's time for a TOTAL RECALL including other occupied territories (Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Finland, Konigsberg, Manchuria, Kurils) and free multitude of nations imprisoned in RF including purely non-Russian regions such as Siberia and North Caucasus (e.g. Chechnya, Kuban, Tatarstan) - Russians exploit those nations as slaves: they use those people as "cannon fodder" in wars and they "suck out" all natural resources from those lands without any payback but with huge ecological harm [CSCE, ombudsmen, Ben Hodges, ISW map, Bereza, Friz, ROK, rosanticenter, Crimea, Lugandon is the best-documented textbook case].

Russia is the terrorist state, so to stop the terror, RF must be deputinized/demilitarized. To prevent Russian terrorism in future, we have to remove its feed - slaves and easy money - liberate enslaved nations and internationalize colonized natural resources (like oceans and Antarctica, remember that all former EU colonies were "internationalized" except for Russia which is the only remaining colonial country in the world, and I don't see any justification for this exemption). To put it simply, to have a peace, Russian Federation must be decomposed into Russia and non-Russian states (constituting majority of RF territory) [Berezovets, Bereza, Budanov, Chernik, Fedyna, Friz, Hudymenko, Poroshenko (Щоб добитися миру, маємо путіну влаштувати пекло), Kasparov, Reznikov, Roman Ratushnyi, Wałęsa].

It is now evident that the most cruel invaders of Ukraine in its entire history were russians (rossiyane known also as moskovites and soviets running a "holy war" for centuries to eliminate Ukrainians [Poroshenko], which itself is the largest genocide in the world history) and maybe mongols in 13th century (but mongols were warriors whereas russians are bandits). Russian army is rusty but nasty so they kill civilians and kidnap survivors, destroy cities and ransack houses, and do more horrible things [largest terrorist attack ever, Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol, Mariupol, Enerhodar, Izium, Vinnytsia, Kremenchuk, Kramatorsk, Bilogorivka, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kherson, Kherson region, Kherson region, Mykolaiv, Berdyansk, Kyiv's damages in 3D, Olenivka massacre, hrw.org, ISW, Grant, Poroshenko, Paievska, Carpenter, permanent everyday shelling of cities and borderline territories, purposeful shooting of civilians, use of forbidden weapon, deportation, Russia Today urges to kill Ukrainian children, their own "confession"].

Analysis from Kasparov, Piontkovsky, Illarionov, Butusov, also Bezsmertnyi, Belkovsky, Chornovil, Felshtinsky, Grant, Koch, Kuzio, Nevzlin, Ohryzko, Savchuk, Scherba, Shuklinov, Soros, and reposts and SoundCheck from Chekalkin, and map by texty.org.ua

How to support financially: A direct targeted support is the best option, whereas blind support of state-controlled organizations is the worst option because you might be fueling our mega-corruption (see details below); I guess the best way to support the state budget is to pay legal fees in time and in full, considering any extra fees as a tax on Ukrainian Army. For more serious support consider credible private and public organizations. The most credible one known to me is Poroshenko Foundation whose public part is Solidarna Sprava Hromad (ГО Справа Громад). Other organizations with clean reputations (per my knowledge) include Демократична Сокира, Рух Опору Капітуляції, Повернись живим, Фонд Юрія Бутусова, Fundacja TeofiPolskie Serce, волонтер Анна Домбровська, фонд Сергія Притули.

Info for pessimists: Always compare current situation with what was before and also with realistic best and worst case scenarios. Then you will clearly see that we are lucky and Ukraine history is spiraling up steadily in the last 40 years starting from destruction of Soviet prison of nations in 1980s and till now when destruction of Russian prison of nations becomes possible. Just revisit challenges in terms of opportunities. Looking back to 2013 when Ukraine unofficially was just a part of G8-level Russian empire, I could not even imagine that Ukraine would gradually get a complete separation from that empire in 9 years, whereas Russia would transform into a fading outcast. On a larger time scale, it has been exactly 800 years since Kyivan Rus transforming later into Ukraine is permanently occupied by Mongol Empire transforming later into Russian Empire, starting from our historical defeat at Battle of the Kalka River on May 31, 1223, located on the current front line. So it is an opportunity to get the long-awaited freedom and defeat or even destroy that evil empire.

Info for forcedly mobilized Russians: Everybody understands that you are slaves in RF, and RF considers you as a cannon fodder (RF needs 1000 per day), so you have only a few options to save your life: 1) protest (you will save millions of lives); 2) leave RF; 3) surrender ASAP in case if you are sent to a front-line (preferably with a salvage) [Zelenskyy (in Russian from 3:45), Vera Mironova]. In case if you just want to exchange your life for LADA, remember that it is a usual Russian "lohotron" with low success rate (less than 1 LADA per 100 deads).

Many thanks for everybody helping Ukraine: Ukrainian Army + volunteers + core supporters including health and emergency and funding, president Poroshenko and other pro-Ukrainian forces, president Zelenskyy and other originally not-pro-Ukrainian forces standing now for Ukraine, international partners including Poland and Baltic countries, UK and US and Canada, EU countries, Japan, Türkiye, many other countries as well as all people standing against Rashism. Your help saves millions of lifes and trillions of dollars because analysis of occupied territories clearly shows that Russia planned to repeat Stalin genocide devastated this region in the past century.

Shame to countries supporting war: Iran drones attack Ukrainian cities

Problems

Problem #1 (MEGAPROBLEM): Corruption inside Ukraine escalating since 2019 under Kolomoyskyi-Zelenskyy-Yermak presidence:

Problem #2: For many years the offender in this war was fueled by countries standing against the war (until summer 2022 unintentional financial support of the offender by EU substantially exceeded support of the victim, in this way e.g. EU generously funded Russian production of ammunition for the "scorched earth" destruction of Ukraine, in numbers EU paid RF 0.5B/day for oil/gas which was half of military expenditures of EU and equal to GDP of Ukraine, can be solved by stop of the fueling and it looks like RF is taking the initiative in this direction) [Yatsenyuk, Zerkal, Illarionov, Kuleba, Gazprom]. It should be emphasized that Russian gas supply is noncritical for EU - it is used only for superprofit and overconsumption. A good example is Germany: annual non-luxury household use is about 10 Bm3 (here we assume that Germany has two times larger population than Ukraine but two times smaller demand due to mild winter and better energy efficiency) which is a tiny fraction of both total gas consumption (100 Bm3) and Russian gas (50 Bm3).

Problem #3: (a) The sky of Ukraine is open to Russian missiles and Iran drones used for everyday terror of civilians (can be solved either by closing the sky, or by extermination of missiles and bombers, or by equivalent counter-attacks, all options require a substantial support by our partners far beyond the current level [Zaluzhnyi-Zabrodskyi]). (b) Frontline cities are open to Russian artillery used for demolition of these cities and killing all its residents (this problem is being solved by extermination of Russian artillery, which requires a constant supply of counter-artillery).

Problem #4: Russia still has substantial military superiority in weapon and resources despite invaluable multifaceted support by our partners (Oct18 update). The most critical is artillery and counter-artillery because the overwhelming majority of our human losses comes from shelling. Starting from Aug, there is a steady progress towards equilibration. Guess who is the main heavy-weapon supplier, US/EU? – no, it is Russia though unintentionally. Strategically, since Budapest memorandum was violated by Russia, Ukraine's lost nuclear weapon now can be replenished back to deter Russia until it is demilitarized [Sikorski].

Problem #5: Antiukrainian propaganda in Russia, Ukraine, and beyond, escalating since 2000s (strong enough to make many people mentally sick [Meduza, Obozrevatel, Russians in EU], including #какаяразница political force ruling Ukraine since 2019) [Mingarelli]. Starting from Sep, there is a steady worldwide progress in immunization against Russian propaganda.

Problem #6: Export of corruption from Russia with enormous funding (large fraction of RF budget, capable to corrupt a US senator or a Chancellor of Germany not mentioning leaders of small countries like Serbia or Hungary) [Eydman, NashiGroshi]. In this way, a large fraction of EU/US politicians and businessman unintentionally became accessories of state-wide banditism in Russia, resulting in the largest robbery of a country by absolute sum of money washed out of Russia in 1990-2022.

Problem #7: Weakening of modern democracy vs strengthening of autocracy. This is a world war of autocracy against democracy [Illarionov, Kasparov, Fursa, Lutsenko, Shuklinov, Nevzlin]. Putin ("the evil") is always one step ahead of his EU/US opponents ("the good"). In other words, how vulnerable is our democratic world if such a miserable jerk (hu*lo in Ukrainian) can terrorize it for years. This "operational superiority" of autocracy is observed also on a larger scale: Economically depressed Iran readily provides any weapon in any amount to Russia, whereas for economically superstrong EU/US a transfer of every single item of each type of weapon becomes an NP-hard problem. As pointed out by Russians themselves (see e.g. Potapenko), Western politicians often fully misunderstand Russia (see e.g. US experts in 2015) considering it as a regular state, but in fact, internally it is a lawless empire whose leader is a dictator and citizens are graded slaves, whereas externally it is a terrorist organization with unprecedentedly high internal resources to support the terror. That is how bad guys, dirty money, and all kinds of fakes are exported from Russia to Europe as clean and lawful stuff. It was a series of political "shortsightedness" of US/EU leaders in 2007-2016 (including Obama, Merkel, Hollande, Sarkozy) trying to extinguish a grease fire with water, that resulted in 2022 in the largest war since WWII. Illustrative examples:

Problem #10: Complete failure of old international organizations (OSCE, UN, WHO, Red Cross, Amnesty International, church) to fulfil their core functions [Klimkin, Nevzin, Truss, Barchuk and Lemberg and "Angel of peace" medal].

Solutions

The length and aftermath of this war are fully determined by developed countries by balance of their intentional support of Ukraine (amount and quality of weapon) vs unintentional support of Russia (amount of superprofit they get from Russian corruption). Of course, the required balance itself depends on strength of Russian army and Ukrainian corruption, but these factors are less variable.

It is clear that majority of Russians should be restricted from entering civilized countries (a standard rule applied to citizens of terrorist states - every Russian must get clearance first) because roughly speaking every second Russian is a bad guy or barbarian or zombie, and you don't know how to filter them out at the border. In the worst case scenario they are KGB-agents, terrorists, and saboteurs, whereas in the "light case" scenario they constitute the "Fifth column" propagating violence in various forms from verbal and hooliganism to criminal cases including beating, organized banditism, and theft [Honcharenko]. Also, we should always REMEMBER that Russia can attack any country with non-negligible fraction of Russian-thinking population (e.g. Germany) to "save russkiy mir". Importantly, Russians kill people consciously, i.e. whatever they say on camera in a civilized world, they follow their leaders upon first call like terrorists [Bereza, VolunteerInfo]. The fact that the percentage of rashists among russians is very high is given by number of "likes" for this Paris restaurant whose owner supports putin.

All Russian export must be taxed to fund restoration of Ukraine. Now there is a nice idea of Michael McFaul to tax also Russian travelers.

Timeline

Update by Nov 20: message from Austin explaining why it is critically important to punish and denuclearize Russia for world security; analysis by Illarionov; Zelenskyy stays firmly on impossibility of armistice despite strong pressure from Russia in its urgent need of a respite and prorussian forces worldwide cynically trying to minimize their business losses

Update by Nov 15: To remind the world that Russians are terrorists, Russians conducted massive missile/drone/artillery attack on Ukrainian cities on the 1st day of the G20 summit, which is now should be called G19 summit. See also detailed analysis by Tom Cooper.

Belgrade Security Conference Oct 27: analysis by Illarionov and other experts

Analysis by Tabakh and Illarionov on Oct 19: see here, includes 1) discussion on how to present facts (it is unacceptable for Arestovich, Zhdanov, Zelenskyy to hide the truth); 2) Ukrainian government should use antiputin forces in Russia and Belarus to win this war.

Update by Oct 17: Drone war begins. Russia systematically and massively attacks our cities with drones and missiles trying to fully destroy our civil infrastructure and terrorize civilians. We must respond symmetrically without terrorizing civilians.

Progress by Oct 10: massive Ukraine-wide air strike targeting civilians reinforced the global understanding that Russian Empire must be destroyed as terrorist state and prison of nations. Also, it showed that 1) we are strong and prepared; 2) RF is weak and collapsing; 3) the world is united against Russian aggression. Now we expect an appropriate response from US/EU: give us air defense systems and heavy weapon including long-range missiles and consent to attack military objects on Russian territory until complete demilitarization of Russia. Oct 12 update: that massive air-strike resulted in this military help

Progress by Oct 8: 1) RF is internally destabilized; 2) terrorism/sabotage/blackmail/corruption is the only remaining Russian weapon, fortunately, more and more Western politicians recognize RF as the terrorist state, fortunately, nuclear terrorism is prevented by the threat to destroy RF army (NATO can do it in a few days with conventional weapon), unfortunately, "conventional" terrorism can be stopped only by providing long-range missiles to Ukraine and extermination of chief terrorists (Kovalchuk-Putin-Prigozhin-Surovikin-Kadyrov); 3) RF is still strong in blackmailing Western politicians (e.g. Merkel) and businessmen (e.g. Mask); see analysis by Piontkovsky.

Progress by Oct 1: RF is now doomed in isolation, see analysis by Illarionov; mobilization in Russia is equivalent to genocide of its own population – it was started a long time ago with non-Russian population but now takes more and more Russians.

Progress by Sep 10: Many problems and uncertainties of the first several months of the war have now been resolved (e.g. "we are deeply concerned" impotence is cured), so that now we are in some steady state with more-or-less clear perspective (need Tomahawks, train and equip 20 brigades, steady weapon supply) [Reznikov, Zaluzhnyi-Zabrodskyi, Piontkovsky, Illarionov, Zhdanov, Butusov, Kasparov]. The urgent need of Tomahawks or any other weapon capable to attack Russian territory till Ural (i.e. including entire native Russian territory, colonies must be decolonized) AND demilitarization of 100 km zone around cities was recently reminded by attack on our critical civil infrastructure [Brink, Klimkin]. To summarize, Zed is dead but we still need to find a couple of pipe-hittin' nigga's with a pair of pliers and a blow torch. In contrast, there is no progress or even stabilization of the front-line in our war with corruption.

Major threats by Sep 2: It has been clear now that Russia use Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant not only to terrorize EU with the eco-catastrophe threat, but also as a "human shield" to keep the front-line military base there.

Progress by Aug 24: Steady weapon supply by our partners has now been established allowing for more efficient and systematic extermination of russian invaders. See also message from Reznikov.

Progress by Jul 10: Finally we got the long-awaited weapon: with 100km-range high-precision artillery ("HIMARS-light") we are now able to eliminate Russian ammunition dumps which they need to wipe out our cities by continuous shelling. Also, we urgently need middle and long range artillery to eliminate Russian rocket launchers used by them to destroy shopping malls, schools, and other highly populated areas far from the front line. [Shuklinov]

Progress by Jul 9: Russia is ignored on G20, in other words Russia was expelled from G7 after invasion-2014 and from G20 after invasion-2022.

Analysis by Illarionov on Jul 3: see here, the main conclusion is that in order to survive we need a financial/weapon support from our partners matching at least 30% of their unintentional financial support of Russia, and it is realistic because the required funding constitutes a small fraction of NATO military spendings, so the only needed is 1) political will of our partners to support us and 2) political will of our government to not misuse that support (and our own budget).

Progress by Jun 29: NATO changed RF status from partner to evil #1 and several other things marking new level of support by our partners [Piontkovsky: video and text]

Major threats by Jun 29: Starting from June 25 Russians began to demonstrate a naked terrorism by everyday firing of cruise missiles onto civil objects with large concentration of civilians (shopping malls, residential areas) located far from the front-line. This is just another reminder for the rest of the world that there will be no peace until Russian army is fully exterminated and Russia is fully demilitarized with a strict international control of its army in the next 10 years at least.

Progress by May 24: message from Shuklinov

Progress by Apr 29: Rammstein summit of Ukraine-supporting countries (showing that the balance of forces now is 10:1 compared to 1:10 on Feb 24 when Ukraine was alone standing against Russia) and possible Lend-Lease for Ukraine vs. No-Resources in Russia

Major threats by May 25: Outrageous nonprofessionalism of our government is moving to the front line: Some military units are thrown to the front line unprepared (no weapon, no communication, no supplies) resulting in meaningless casualties [Butusov, case#1, case#2]

Major threats by May 15: Russia fails with the military operation and thus returns to its most capable methods: terrorism, coercion, subversion, falsification, corruption and "tolerance stretching", utilizing numerous vulnerabilities of political systems of Ukraine and EU [Shulipa]

Update from Mar 17: Message from Arnold Schwarzenegger

Commonly reported facts about Russians

Commonly reported facts about Russians** in this war (we knew this before, implying no positive evolution, see also analysis by Yakubova):

** Strictly speaking "rossiyane" (denationalized citizens of the prison of nations called Russian Federation), but it is now a responsibility of Russians to clean up their name. It should be emphasized that majority of critically thinking Russians are against the war including scientists, uncorrupted politics and businessmen, prominent artists (Pugacheva, Makarevich, Akhedzhakova, Galkin, Shevchuk, Nazarov, Serebryakov), majority of intelligent Russian emigrants, Free Russia Forum, Freedom of Russia Legion, Foundation Stop Inform Terror, partisans, other "good russians", see multiple interviews of Radio Svoboda with Moscow citizens, but any dissidence inside Russia is brutally suppressed (see e.g. Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny, Yevgeny Roizman, Ilya Yashin, Anna Politkovskaya). At the same time, majority of Ukrainians (and other nations too) do not think critically, so they are as vulnerable to propaganda as Russians. In other words, three rules should be kept in mind. The first is the 80/20 rule. The second rule is that up to 80% majority vote can be achieved purely by propaganda as was simply formulated by Boris Berezovsky, proved for Russians by Putin, and succesfully applied to Ukrainians by Kolomoyskyi. The third rule is that any person who came to power exclusively to get power will abuse that power to eventually become a dictator. The best example is our 2019 elections when the pro-Ukrainian forces standing under the slogan "Army, Language, Faith" were defeated by oligarchs-backed populists-po*uists standing under vulgar slogans like "Зробимо їх разом", "Какая разница", "Надо просто перестать стрелять": the majority reached 75/25, the candidate was an antiukrainian vulgar-style humorist, and the abuse of power started right after the election, so that here we "greatly surpassed" Russians-2000 by all three factors.